There is a great sports story in the basketball world right now: Jeremy Lin of the New York Knicks.

A month or so, Lin was an asterisk on the Knicks roster. He was on the team, but barely – and he got very
little playing time. Then, because more established players were unable to play, Lin got his chance.

The results are nothing short of phenomenal. As of this writing, he is averaging something like 25 points
and 8 assists in 5 games, all of which the Knicks have won. He even had 38 points in a win over the Lakers.

The Lin story reminded me of a study that was done by a group of economists (recounted in the excellent book, Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior). They found that professional basketball players were given playing time in direct proportion to their position in the NBA draft – irrespective of on-court performance. The study found that highly drafted players received considerably more playing time than less-heralded players – even when a lower-ranked player was outplaying the “star” on almost every measure. The point of this study was that coaches and management will stick by a decision to play a high-draft choice in order to support that decision – even when it is proven to be wrong.

Lin got his break and is making the most of it. But, others may not be so lucky.

The other day I was watching American Idol. This show is now in its 11th season and has discovered some great young talent, including several (e.g. Carrie Underwood) that have gone on to huge commercial success. So, I wonder: what if this show never existed? Would Carrie Underwood still be a waitress in Muskogee, Oklahoma?

The point I am focused on is how, when, and under what circumstances people get breaks – an opportunity to show what they can do. I have concluded that the only certainty is unpredictability – there is no way to know when your shot will come. And so, the only strategy that makes sense is to be ready, to do everything possible to perfect your craft in the belief that at some point the door to our personal “stardom” opens for each one of us.